giovedì 20 giugno 2013

Eurostat. GDP per capita, consumption per capita and price level indices. Data from June 2013, most recent data: Further Eurostat information, Main tables and Database.

This article focuses primarily on gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in the European Union (EU) but also looks at the level of actual individual consumption (AIC) per capita and at countries' price level indices. The analysis covers the 27 EU Member States, three EFTA Member States (Iceland, Norway and Switzerland), acceding state Croatia, as well as four EU candidate countries (the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Turkey), and two potential candidate countries (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina).






In 2012, Bulgaria was the country with the lowest level of GDP per capita among all EU Member States, at less than 50 per cent of the EU average. Austria was 31 per cent above that average; only Luxembourg recorded a higher level of GDP per capita. Levels of AIC were somewhat more homogeneous, but still showed substantial differences across EU. The highest price level among the EU Member States was observed in Denmark at 45 per cent above the EU-27 average.

 Relative volumes of GDP per capita
Countries’ volume indices of GDP per capita are shown in the left-hand part of Table 1 (per-capita volume indices are explained in Data sources and availability).

The dispersion in GDP per capita across the EU Member States is quite remarkable. Luxembourg has by far the highest GDP per capita among all the 37 countries included in this analysis, being more than two and a half times above the EU-27 average, and 6 times higher than Bulgaria, which is the poorest EU Member State as measured by this indicator. One particular feature of Luxembourg's economy which to some extent explains the country's very high GDP per capita is the fact that a large number of foreign residents are employed in the country and thus contribute to its GDP, while at the same time they are not included in the resident population.

Austria, Ireland, the Netherlands and Sweden come out at around 30 per cent above the EU-27 average. However, the EFTA Member States Norway and Switzerland have a higher level of GDP per capita.

EU Member States with a GDP per capita of between 15 and 25 per cent above the EU-27 average are Denmark, Germany, Belgium and Finland. EFTA Member State Iceland, the United Kingdom and France show a GDP per capita level of around 10 per cent above the EU-27 average.

Italy and Spain are at a GDP per capita level just below the EU-27 average. Cyprus is around 10 per cent below the average, while Malta, Slovenia, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Greece and Portugal are between 15 and 25 per cent lower. Lithuania, Estonia, Poland, Hungary, Latvia and acceding state Croatia are between 30 and 40 per cent below the EU-27 average.

Candidate country Turkey has a higher level of GDP per capita than EU Member States Romania and Bulgaria, at around more than half the EU-27 average. The other candidate countries – Montenegro, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Serbia - are about 60 per cent or more below the EU-27 average. Finally, two potential candidate countries - Albania and Bosnia and Herzegovina - have GDP per capita of 70 per cent below the EU-27 average.
 Relative volumes of consumption per capita

While GDP per capita is mainly an indicator of the level of economic activity, Actual Individual Consumption (AIC) per capita is an alternative indicator better adapted to describe the material welfare situation of households.

Actual individual consumption consists of goods and services actually consumed by individuals, irrespective of whether these goods and services are purchased and paid for by households, by government, or by non-profit institutions. In international volume comparisons, AIC is often seen as the preferable measure, since it is not influenced by the fact that the organisation of certain important services consumed by households, like health and education services, differs a lot across countries.

Countries’ volume indices of AIC per capita can be found in the right-hand part of Table 1.

Generally, levels of AIC per capita are more homogeneous than GDP but still there are substantial differences across the EU Member States. To illustrate this, in 2012, fifteen countries are clustered in the range between 80 and 120 per cent of the EU-27 average, while the levels of GDP per capita for those same countries vary between 75 and 131 per cent.

Luxembourg is the country with the highest level of AIC per capita in the EU, 41 per cent above the average of the EU-27. However, while Luxembourg can be said to belong to "a division of its own" in terms of GDP, this is less so for AIC. One reason for this is that cross-border workers contribute to GDP in Luxembourg while their consumption expenditure is recorded in the national accounts of the country of their residence.

The EU Member State with the second highest AIC per capita is Germany at 21 per cent above the average, around the same as its GDP per capita. Ireland's AIC per capita is marginally below the average EU-27 level, while GDP per capita is 29 per cent higher than the average.

 Price levels in Europe
The price level adjustment factors used to derive the volume indices in Table 1 can also be applied in an analysis of countries' price levels. Table 2 shows countries' price level indices to the right, with the EU-27 average at 100, for AIC only. It also shows the exchange rates applied in the calculation of the price level indices. In the following, only the price level indices of AIC will be discussed, since this is closer to the concept of price levels that most people are familiar with than a price level indicator based on GDP.

Denmark has the highest price level among the EU Member States, 45 per cent above the EU-27 average. However, EFTA Member States Norway and Switzerland have higher price levels which in 2012 exceeded the overall EU-27 level by more than 60 per cent. Other countries with price levels more than 20 per cent higher than the EU-27 average are Luxembourg, Sweden and Finland. Ireland, the EFTA Member State Iceland, Belgium, France and the Netherlands all have price levels between 10 and 20 per cent above the average. Austria, the United Kingdom, Italy and Germany have price levels of between 0 and 10 per cent above the EU-27 average.

Spain, Cyprus and Greece have price levels of around 10 per cent below the EU-27 average, followed by Slovenia and Portugal being at the same level of around 15 per cent below the EU-27 average.

At the lower end of the table, we find several countries with price levels between 25 and 50 per cent below the EU average: Malta, Estonia, the Czech Republic, Latvia and the acceding state Croatia. Also Slovakia, Lithuania, Turkey, Hungary, Poland, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and Romania fall within this range.

The lowest price levels – half the EU average and below – are found in Serbia, Bulgaria, Albania and in the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia.

Exchange rates are crucial in determining price level indices, and exchange rate movements consequently often have a big impact on the development of price levels over time. In fact, several of the major price level changes observed between 2009 and 2012 can be at least partly explained by fluctuations of country's currencies against the euro.

In 2012, the national currencies of the United Kingdom and Norway appreciated significantly against euro, whilst the most prominent depreciations were observed in Serbia and Romania.

The last three rows in Table 2 show the coefficients of variation of the price levels for three groups of countries: the euro area (EA-17), the 27 EU Member States, and the entire group of 37 countries. A time series of these coefficients can be interpreted as a rudimentary price convergence indicator.

These figures tell us that first, and unsurprisingly, the price dispersion is much less pronounced in the euro area than in the EU as a whole and in the 37-country group, which can be partially impacted by the volatility of exchange rates. Second, while price levels are marginally converging within the euro area, this seems not to be the case in the EU as a whole, or in the complete group of countries.

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